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Published on: August 5 2023 by pipiads

Hey guys, welcome back to the Macrotrading floor! This is Alfonso Pecatello, also known as Macro Alf, CEO and founder of The Macro Compass. And I'm Andrea Stino, CEO and founder of Sustainable Research. You're now listening to the most actionable podcast in the world of macro. And we intend on providing an actionable idea towards the end of each of these episodes. But before we get to the actionable content, let's try and have a look at what happened in the world of macro this week.

- Bank of Japan widened the trading range for the 10-year JGBs. Was this a surprise or was it something that was expected?

- The reason behind this move has little to do with inflation and more to do with incentive schemes. The current governor wants to claim victory before his term ends in April next year.

- Market reaction to this move was relatively serious, with a strong repricing of Japanese deposit rates and bond volatility.

- However, it may be an overdone reaction considering the Bank of Japan's reasoning behind widening the trading range was focused on financial stability and functioning of the JGB market, not inflation.

- The question remains whether the successor to Kuroda will continue this hawkish approach, depending on the inflation picture in the next six to nine months.

- Analyst expectations for core inflation in Japan next year are at 2%, but inflation swaps are more hesitant.

- The volatility in dollar-yen and euro-yen shows that the yen gets a lift in a global recession, but there may be a nuance this time as Japanese investors may buy more dollar bonds during a recession due to the Federal Reserve cutting rates.

- From a Japanese perspective, a steep dollar curve is attractive for buying dollar bonds, but the current extreme inversion makes it difficult to make the equation look nice for Japanese investors.

- A steepening of the curve could bring the Japanese back into the dollar market, especially if the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates in 2023.

- The European Central Bank has suddenly become more hawkish, with a forecast of 4.2% core inflation in 2023. This requires a dramatic shift in where short-end rates, swaps, and Bunds are trading.

- The ECB is also preparing to do QT (quantitative tightening), draining bank reserves.

- The European bond market is ripe for action in Q1 next year, and the ECB may continue to sound hawkish even as the confirmation of a recession gets stronger.

- European core inflation has historically lagged behind the US by 4 to 6 months, and the ECB has been late to the game. They may panic in Q1 and maintain a hawkish stance, even as a recession becomes more evident.

In conclusion, the Bank of Japan's widening of the trading range for 10-year JGBs and the European Central Bank's hawkish stance are significant developments in the world of macro. The market reaction has been relatively serious, but it remains to be seen how these actions will impact inflation and the bond markets in the long run.

A blog should be on your website - Emily Warren Physical Therapy - Weekly ROAM

In this article, we will be analyzing the website of a physical therapist who specializes in back pain. We will evaluate the user experience, performance, and SEO of the website. Let's dive in and see what improvements can be made.

Performance of Blogging:

Upon visiting the website, we noticed that there is a blog section. However, clicking on a blog post takes us to a completely different website called Mind Body Back Solutions. This raises some confusion and questions about the purpose and strategy behind this redirection. It's important to note that this approach may impact the authority and traffic of the main website.

Technical SEO and User Experience:

Moving on to the technical aspects of the website, it is crucial to consider on-site page speed and user experience. These factors greatly impact search engine rankings and overall user satisfaction. Unfortunately, this website falls short in terms of technical SEO, scoring only 45 out of 100. Improvements can be made in areas such as site structure, URL formatting, and keyword optimization.

Backlinks and Organic Traffic:

Another area of concern is the lack of backlinks to the website. Backlinks play a significant role in increasing organic traffic and improving search engine rankings. Without a strong backlink profile, this website is unlikely to receive substantial traffic. It is essential to focus on high-quality, niche-oriented backlink building strategies to boost visibility and credibility.

In conclusion, while the website has a visually appealing design, it lacks in crucial areas such as performance, technical SEO, and backlinks. To improve the overall effectiveness of the website, it is recommended to address these issues by optimizing on-site page speed, enhancing user experience, and implementing a solid backlink building strategy. By doing so, this physical therapist can increase their online presence, attract more organic traffic, and ultimately grow their business.

Radical Change in Markets: Howard Marks’ Sea Change

Howard Marks is a legendary investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. His memos to investors are highly regarded, even by Warren Buffett. In his latest memo titled Sea Change, Marks discusses the radical changes happening in the market and what it means for investors. This article will delve into the key points of Marks' memo and its implications for us as investors.

Sea Change 1: Risk vs Return

- In the early days of Marks' career, the belief was that investing in safe blue-chip companies like IBM was enough, regardless of valuation.

- However, the Nifty 50 index, which consisted of overpriced stocks, suffered significant losses in the sell-off that followed in 1972.

- Marks learned the importance of buying good companies at the right price, stating that there was no price too high for these stocks.

- He emphasizes the need to consider risk and return in investing, a concept that is now widely accepted but was not the norm back then.

Sea Change 2: Falling Interest Rates

- Marks discusses the impact of declining interest rates over the past four decades, calling it a sea change in the market.

- Lower interest rates have boosted almost every asset class, including bonds and equities.

- Borrowing becomes cheaper, stimulating economic growth and increasing profit growth for companies.

- Asset prices have risen, leading to higher valuations and reducing prospective returns.

- The private equity industry has particularly benefited from falling interest rates, with leverage buyouts becoming common.

Sea Change 3: The Period after the Global Financial Crisis

- Following the global financial crisis, interest rates were pushed to zero, creating a highly stimulative environment.

- Despite massive money printing, inflation remained dormant.

- The economic outlook was positive, and the likelihood of distress was minimal.

- Investors were complacent, resulting in a sense of optimism and eagerness to hold onto assets.

Howard Marks' memo highlights the significant changes occurring in the market. Investors must consider risk and return, especially when buying stocks at high valuations. Falling interest rates have boosted various asset classes, but prospective returns have decreased. The private equity industry owes its existence to these declining interest rates. The period after the global financial crisis was characterized by a highly stimulative environment and complacency among investors. Understanding these sea changes is crucial for navigating the current market landscape.

Thrive and Grow E1 with CA Paresh Desai

Welcome to the first edition of a new program called Thrive and Grow, where our goal is to empower you to be the best version of yourself. I was inspired to create this show because I believe that each of us has the power to make a difference, both in our own lives and in the lives of others. Through this program, we will explore various topics that can help us thrive and grow. In this episode, we are joined by a qualified chartered accountant, Paresh, who will not only teach us how to pick stocks using technical charts but also provide insights into the stock market. So, let's dive right in!

- The purpose of the program is to empower individuals to be the best they can be.

- Making a difference is not only possible in other people's lives but also in our own lives.

- The program aims to provide knowledge on various topics to help us understand them better.

What are Stocks?

- Stocks are like commodities that can be bought and sold.

- Buying stocks at a lower price and selling them at a higher price can lead to profits.

- Stocks are equity shares that can be bought in an IPO or from the secondary market.

- A bank account and a dematerialized account are required to trade stocks.

Difference between Stocks and Mutual Funds:

- Mutual funds are like community investments where professionals manage the funds.

- Mutual funds can be equity-based or debt-based.

- Returns from mutual funds can be lower but more guaranteed compared to stocks.

- Investing directly in stocks can lead to higher returns compared to mutual funds.

Benefits of Investing in Stocks:

- Returns from stocks can be much higher compared to mutual funds.

- Stocks have the potential to provide returns of up to 50-100% annually.

- Investing directly in stocks can lead to exponential growth in wealth.

Warren Buffet's Mantra for Investing:

- The stock market works in waves, with prices going up and down.

- It is important to understand the patterns of the market before investing.

- Following a disciplined approach to investing can lead to long-term success.

- Investing in stocks can be a lucrative way to grow wealth.

- Directly investing in stocks can provide higher returns compared to mutual funds.

- Understanding the patterns of the market and following a disciplined approach are key to successful investing.

So, are you ready to take charge of your financial future and thrive and grow?

"Outperform 99% Of Investors With This Simple Strategy..." - Peter Lynch

People don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use it, that's bad number one. But worse number two, if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good cellist, you're not going to try it. However, people are buying stocks anyway, they're not discouraged, they just think it's a gamble.

Peter Lynch, America's number one money manager according to Time Magazine, has written a new book called Beating the Street where he offers advice on picking stocks and maximizing profits. In this interview, Lynch discusses why he wrote another book and why people should get involved in stocks.

According to Lynch, people's involvement in stocks has actually decreased over the years, despite the 80s being the best decade for stocks. He believes this is because people are losing money due to flawed methods. Lynch wants people to understand their advantages and to do certain things right when buying stocks.

Lynch's philosophy is simple: if you find something that you identify with, such as his wife finding the greatest products at Dunkin Donuts, then it's likely a good investment. He believes that there is a 100% correlation between a company's earnings and its stock price over several years. Therefore, if a company's earnings are going up, the stock will go up as well.

Lynch emphasizes that people shouldn't worry about external factors such as money supply figures or the state of the economy. Instead, they should focus on understanding the company they're investing in. He believes that if you can't explain what the company does to a 10-year-old in two minutes or less, then you shouldn't invest in it.

Lynch advises people to buy what they know and to stay within their industry. He gives the example of following the restaurant industry and investing in companies like McDonald's or Dunkin Donuts. He believes that people have natural advantages within their own industries but often fail to recognize and use them.

In his book, Lynch provides examples and goes into more detail about his investment strategies. He also shares success stories, such as a seventh-grade class that studied companies and picked stocks that outperformed the market. Lynch believes that anyone can succeed in the stock market if they do their research and understand the companies they invest in.

Overall, Lynch wants people to understand their natural advantages, invest in what they know, and avoid getting caught up in external factors. He believes that by following these principles, anyone can beat the street and achieve success in the stock market.

Warren Buffett | How To Invest For Beginners: 3 Simple Rules

I started investing at the age of 11, but I didn't really get serious until I was around 7 or 8. Unfortunately, I didn't start actually buying stocks until I was 11. From there, I experimented with different strategies like timing stocks and charting. It was a lot of fun, even though I wasn't making any profit. I read every book on investing in the public library and absorbed all the information. However, I didn't have a framework to guide me. I was just searching for something, hoping that the charts would give me insights into stock movements. It was a bit crazy, but I saw everyone else doing it, so I thought I should too.

Then, in 1949, I came across a book called The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham. I had never heard of him before, but there were two chapters in that book that completely changed my perspective on investing. These chapters formed the basis of my investing philosophy.

Firstly, Graham taught me that a stock is not just a random ticker symbol. It represents a part of a business. To value a stock, you need to understand the economic characteristics of the business, its competitors, and the quality of its management. This was a crucial shift in my thinking, as I had previously only focused on the tickers without considering the underlying businesses.

Secondly, Graham introduced the concept of Mr. Market in chapter eight. He explained how most people react the wrong way to stock market fluctuations. They feel good when the prices go up and bad when they go down, as if the stock market is there to instruct them. However, Mr. Market is an unpredictable partner. He comes around every day, offering to buy or sell your shares at different prices. You have the advantage of choosing when to buy or sell, and you don't have any moral responsibility towards him. You just need to take advantage of his mood swings and irrational behavior.

Lastly, Graham emphasized the importance of a margin of safety. Just like driving over a bridge with a capacity of 10,000 pounds in a truck that weighs 9,800 pounds, you should leave a margin of safety in your investments. Don't cut things too close and wait for opportunities that offer a significant margin of safety. This is crucial to protect yourself from unexpected events or mistakes in valuation.

These three principles form the foundation of my investment philosophy. Understanding the business, reacting to market fluctuations, and maintaining a margin of safety are essential for long-term success in investing.

If I were given a million dollars to invest, I would spend the next week researching and analyzing different businesses. I would look for companies with enduring competitive advantages and a strong market position. I wouldn't just invest in a business because it's the only one in town. I would look for businesses with a sustainable competitive edge, even if competitors are likely to enter the market in the future. Once I find three such businesses, I would make the investment and hold onto them for the long term.

In conclusion, investing is not just about buying and selling stocks. It's about understanding the underlying businesses, reacting wisely to market fluctuations, and maintaining a margin of safety. These principles, as outlined by Ben Graham in The Intelligent Investor, have been the key to my success in investing.

Elon Musk's Crazy Decision JUST Exposed Elizabeth Warren's Corruption

Elon Musk, the influential CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, faces numerous challenges and controversies on Twitter. While some admire him, others, like Senator Elizabeth Warren, criticize him for various reasons. This article will discuss Warren's concerns about Musk's potential conflicts of interest, misuse of company assets, and tax avoidance. It will also examine the allegations of Musk tunneling resources from his private company, Twitter, to Tesla. Additionally, the article will highlight Musk's response and the impact of these issues on Tesla's stock price.

Concerns raised by Senator Warren:

1. Conflicts of interest and misuse of company assets: Warren demands an explanation from the Tesla board regarding their position on Musk's potential conflicts of interest and misuse of company assets that could harm Tesla and its shareholders.

2. Tunneling resources from Twitter to Tesla: Warren questions whether Musk violated legal boundaries by tunneling resources from his private company, Twitter, to Tesla, a publicly traded company, which would go against his loyalty to Twitter and violate anti-tunneling laws.

3. Tax avoidance: Warren accuses Musk of avoiding paying federal income taxes, highlighting the harm it causes to the nation and calling for a change in the tax code.

Tesla's response and impact on the stock:

1. Tesla's silence: When approached for comment on Warren's concerns, Tesla did not immediately respond.

2. Adverse effect on shareholders: Warren raises concerns about Musk's ownership of Tesla and its potential adverse effects on shareholders due to conflicts of interest.

3. Nosedive in stock price: Following Musk's acquisition of a stake in Twitter, Tesla's stock price dropped by 58%, resulting in a significant loss of market capitalization.

Musk's defense and impact on Twitter:

1. Musk's response to Warren: Musk humorously responds to Warren's concerns and emphasizes the harm he believes her position as a senator has caused the United States.

2. Possible resignation as CEO: Musk conducts a poll on Twitter asking if he should resign as CEO of Twitter, resulting in a slight increase in the company's shares.

3. Value proposition of self-driving vehicles: Musk defends Tesla's stock price by highlighting the long-term value proposition of self-driving vehicles and the potential for autonomous cars to be utilized significantly more than traditional cars.

Ongoing feud between Warren and Musk:

1. Clashes on taxation: Warren criticizes Musk's lack of federal income tax payment, calling for tougher taxation on top earners.

2. Musk's response: Musk mockingly refers to Warren as Senator Karen and dismisses her claims, emphasizing the importance of free speech on Twitter.

Elon Musk's presence on Twitter attracts both admiration and criticism. Senator Elizabeth Warren has raised concerns about Musk's conflicts of interest, misuse of assets, and tax avoidance. The impact of these issues on Tesla's stock price has been significant. Musk defends himself by highlighting the value of self-driving vehicles and criticizing Warren's stance on taxation. The ongoing feud between Warren and Musk continues to play out on Twitter, with both parties using the platform to voice their opinions.

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