Mary Meeker’s 2018 internet trends report | Code 2018

thank you guys. good to be here. thank you all, I should say. I'm gonna run through this presentation and I want to say a couple things. first, I want to thank Ansel and Michael, who and a lot of the folks at Kleiner Perkins who really helped put this together. this is certainly not a one one-person show, and a lot of people do a lot of heavy lifting. in addition, we have a section on China, compiled by the folks at hill house, capital, specifically Liang Wu. this is a slide I'm not going to read, as those of you who've seen this before. this is a presentation that it was is meant to be read, not presented, and so this provides a lot of context on what we're doing, and the presentation is available at Kleiner Perkins comm. encourage you to read it, because I will go through this stuff super fast. this is the the compilation of things we're going to address. there are a few things we won't get through. we will get through the advertising section, the enterprise software stuff and in the comments on USA ink and immigration, which the senator addressed in a very thoughtful way. so I'm going to start out with internet devices and users. growth continues to slow. global smartphone new unit. new smartphone unit shipments had zero percent growth in 2017 versus two percent growth in 2016. Internet users: slowing growth up seven percent versus twelve percent growth and in the previous year. and global Internet users of 3.6 billion surpassed half the world's population in 2018. and the reality of all the. for the business people in the room, when you get to a market, when you get to 50 percent penetration, new growth becomes a lot harder to find, and that's where the the industry is at a really high level. that said, internet usage remains pretty solid, up four percent year-on-year. with some us data it's not d duped, so there's a lot of multitasking going on. a lot of people ask the question about internet usage: how much is too much? our view is it depends on how the time is spent. one of the things I feel really strongly about is there's a lot of innovation and there's a lot of competition and that's driving a lot of product improvements, a lot of usefulness and a lot of usage and also a lot of scrutiny. we put together a list of the key areas where we think there's a lot of innovation going on and there's certainly a lot of growth. I'm going to zip through these really quickly. devices are getting better, faster and cheaper access is rising dramatikally. this looks at the expansion of Wi-Fi networks around the world. products are getting a lot easier to use and they're becoming much more pervasive. Digital payment payments- Digital Reach- is expanding. the portion of people around the world that make payments in any given day in a digital fashion is quite high. with it, with payments, friction is declining. products like messengers and, and, and and and also mobile payments are rising dramatikally in digital currencies are emerging. this looks at the coin base user growth. local online connections are driven by. offline connections are driven by online network effects. this looks at next doors. neighborhood growth in the us in messaging extensibility is expanding. what used to be QQ is now a multi-dimensional series of types of products in the messenger area. with video, mobile adoption is rising very quickly and new content types are emerging. with voice, we've hit tiknology liftoff with word accuracy and we've certainly hit product liftoff with Amazon echoes- install base estimated to be around 30 million plus. the last area to focus on an innovation of competition: competition is personalization. personal with personalization data improves engagement and experiences and drives growth and scrutiny. personal, collective data provide better experiences for consumers: their 2.2 billion Facebook's, 200 million Pinterest, 170 million Spotify and 125 million Netflix's people putting their data into these products to make their experiences better. and then there's the collective data of many other users that affect a lot of real-time products, whether it's ways or snap map or next door or uber pool. this all creates a privacy paradox. we tried to simplify it into into into really three sentences. internet companies are making low price services better, in part from user data. Internet users are increasing their time on Internet services based on perceived value, and regulators want to ensure data is not used improperly. and not all regulators think about this in the same way. when we look at at Facebook, if the company is experiencing higher engagement on the product and that drives monetization for the company in and drives investment in product improvements, and when you have rising monetization, rising growth and rising data collection drives a lot of regulatory scrutiny, whether it's related to data privacy, competition or safety and content for the internet companies. it's key to understand and all this stuff- and it's very complex. we're in the middle of it all right now and will be for a long time to come. it's important to understand the unintended consequences of the products. this is Mark Zuckerberg his quote in April. I said we did not focus enough on preventing abuse and thinking through how people could do these tools to do harm as well. the unintended consequences apply to regulators as well. this is a comment from Bloomberg opinion editorial as it comes into force. Europe with GDP are should be mindful unintended consequences and open to change when things go wrong. while it's crucial to manage for unintended consequences, it's also irresponsible to stop innovation and progress, especially in a in a in a world where there are a lot of countries that are doing different things. I want to drill down on the US internet leaders. they've been aggressive and forward-thinking investors for years. this looks at private money into public companies and IPOs of companies over the last, beyond the last couple of decades, but money in has been quite quite significant. tik companies have risen to 25% of the market cap of the MSCI and that's been a steady increase. the tik companies account for six of the top 15 Rd and capex spenders in the US, with Amazon, Google, alphabet, Intel, Apple and Microsoft in in in the top five slots, and these companies, including Facebook, are the fastest-growing spenders as well on that list. if we look at tik companies versus other industries in the United States, tik M is the largest, fastest growing R&D and capex spenders. the blue line looks at tik- a nine percent compounded growth rate in R&D and capex spending over the last ten years. healthcare at four percent and discretionary at zero percent. it's just interesting to compare what what the growth rates are in the different industries tik companies have. our R&D and capex is also rising as a percent of revenue at 18 percent versus 13% of 2002- 2007. a lot of competition, a lot of R&D spending and capex spending, driving a lot of innovation and growth. I'm gonna switch to e-commerce. the transformation continues to accelerate. ecommerce revenue was up 16% in 2017 in the us versus 14% in the previous year. share gains versus traditional retail continue to rise at 13% for e-commerce. amazoncom ecommerce share gains continue at 28% versus 20% in 2013. ecommerce evolving and scaling. when we think about e-commerce today, it's often mobile, interactive, personalized in the feed, in the inbox and also often at the front door. we wanted to look at the stack of e-commerce just to give you a sense of some of the numbers and trends around how people are building stores and conducting commerce online, oftentimes offline. merchants want to set up a payment system. a lot of times they'll started a company like square. square has 2.8 million active sellers on its platform. we estimate. a lot of times when people want to start develop an online store, they'll go to a service like Shopify: about 600,000 active merchants on their platform. integrated payment systems, stripe. integrate fraud protection. integrate purchase financing. integrate cu.

Benedict Evans: Three Paths to the Future | Slush 2021

[Applause]. [Music] [Applause]. [Applause]. okay, so well, thank you. i don't think anyone's described me as epic before, except maybe my son, but i'm hopefully i'll manage to live up to that um. so, as the hosts kind of kindly said, every year i do a presentation that tries to give some sort of set of ideas of how to think about what's happening in tiknology, um, what seems to be important, what the structures might be, maybe show some surprising charts, and so this is this year's version, and i called it three steps to the future, because it strikes me that very often there's kind of three completely separate conversations going on in tiknology. there's a set of conversations around um, all the exciting stuff for 2025 or 2030.. um, in partikular, crypto. um, in fact, you know, some people say, if you're not, not only should you be all in on crypto, but you probably shouldn't be doing anything else if you work in venture at the moment. so there's that conversation. but then meanwhile, there's all the companies that are actually being created and growing at the moment and the companies that are in this room- this is this event- most of which are deploying the ideas that we've created in the last decade, rather than um building something that will only work in 2013.. and then there's all the other economy, all the other companies in all the other industries who are trying to catch up with ideas from 2000 or 2005.. so you have this kind of the stuff that will happen in the future, the stuff that's happening now and the stuff that's catching up with things we were toking about and getting excited about in 2000 or 1995.. and so if i think about the first of these future, the future- you know what is happening next fairly obviously. now i think there's two sets of conversations around the future of tik. on the one hand, there's a conversation around web 3 and metaverse, and then the sort of everything else, um, everything from quantum to satellites, to plant-based meat or drones or evs- that's all kind of in the, in the misc and other section, while all the huge amount of the excitement now is around web 3 and metaverse. the funny thing about the terms both web 3 and metaverse is there was sort of a rebranding that happened this summer: um, previously we called them cryptokurrencies and we call them ar and vr. but coming up with a new name um is also sort of a reconceptualization, um, a kind of a reimagining of what it is that you're really trying to do and a way of stepping up to express actually a rather broader vision of what this stuff might be. cryptokurrencies aren't just about speculation in digital gold or even about d5, vr and ar isn't just about games or headsets. it's about something much broader. and so if we look first at thinking about how we might understand web3, i've always kind of liked this quote from voltaire, who said that the holy roman empire was neither holy nor roman, nor an empire. and the reason i use this is that if you say cryptokurrency, well, that it's not really about cryptography and it's not only about a currency. um, it's not secret blockchain. if you say blockchain, that sort of implies it's a database, and so there's always been this kind of struggle of, well, what do you even call this or what would a set of terminology be that would actually explain what you're trying to do? and you know web 3 is sort of the best attempt so far at encapsulating that in that. you know, we know we had the web, and then the idea of web 2.0 in 2005 was saying: well, we're moving from companies creating the content to all of us creating the content, and so that gets you youtube and facebook, but it also gets you yelp and zillow, and it gets you networks and federation distribution, apis, rss, all sorts of stuff, some of which stuck, some of which didn't. but it was a shift in who was creating the content, not in who is making money from it or controlling it. and so then the concept of web 3 is actually now it's the users themselves who control these systems, so these networks become distributed, open computing systems, as opposed to all of us publishing something onto a closed system like facebook or twitter. this is also, of course, open source 2.0. um open source. we had open, distributed code creation, but it was run um in private, inside a software company or inside your own computer, um. then we went to web and sas, which are all powered by open source. but again, even though google runs on open source, you can't see the code as it's running um and so where? but then, with web3, we have a distributed computing system, so not only is the source code open, but the computer's open that we can see the code running and we have a revenue model built in which open source never had. um. this is all tremendously exciting, intoxicating, sort of messianic, millenarian, religious, a lot like early open source, a lot like at the early internet, um, and of course we're going to solve all of the old problems, um, and of course we won't couldn't possibly have all sorts of new problems or just express those problems in exciting new ways. um, all of that has got us to, um, some very, very exciting market caps. that's probably the thing that gets people most excited. you know something: over a trillion dollars of bitcoin, half a half a trillion dollars of ethereum, um, and this stuff has now broken well out beyond. the kind of people who come to conferences like this- um, i mean people at goldman sachs and morgan stanley and ubs- think, oh, actually, maybe crypto assets might be viable as a store of value, so kind of the v1 use case for bitcoin has now kind of reached the mainstream and become something that people take entirely seriously. um, the more interesting question if you're actually in the software business is, well, how would you go beyond just a store of value and how would you create software and how much of that is actually happening so far? and here the numbers shift to the kind of small but very exciting rather than big but very exciting. i think, if you told somebody in 2010, um, that the hottest thing in the tik industry had 200 000 registered users, they would think that was a taipei for 200 million um, but of course that's one of the way, one of the ways that this becomes interesting, that scarcity becomes important, um, and so i think you know again. most people um in this room will know what an nft is and have been looking at these prices and looking at the, the user numbers here. um, i think the important thing to what to understand here is that, on the one hand, there's- yes, you know, there is no actual conceptual problem with the idea of sort of digital items as art or digital items of property. the absolute numbers are tiny, but this doesn't actually have to be about art. rather, this is about ways of owning building blocks and ways of holding, owning primitives, ways of owning, indeed, pieces of the internet. my former colleague at andreessen horace, chris dixon, said: you know, nfts mean you can own a piece of the internet, and had a thousand people from you know web, two companies, screaming at him and saying he was an idiot. but this is a perfectly reasonable way of thinking about what you're doing. just as you can buy a domain name, you can buy a piece of content, or you can buy an item or you can buy an address on this system. um, stepping away from very frosty things like that, there's also a bunch of other places where we have exciting, interesting incentive structures. um, something like helium, which creates an incentive structure to distribute a wireless network, has got again a very nice adoption curve. um, but what we also have to wonder when we look at all of these things is to try and understand what we're looking at. so you know, does a market cap tell me that it's working well for normal company? no, it doesn't. it tells us people think it's working. does it market cap for a crypto system tell me that it's working well? sort of yes and sort of no. if everybody is buying it because it's going up and the early members users are cashing out, is that a ponzi scheme? well, maybe, but that's also how art or currencies, um.

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Peter Szulczewski, CEO of e-commerce app Wish, raised $1 billion in two years

Peter, CEO of wish. how did i do on that? are you pleased that Mike working? do you want an? okay? we argue eight, okay. so I met Peter for the first time yesterday. we've toked before a couple of times, usually via text message. trump, stop, that's actually a good place to start, well, first of all. so I asked: did you hear me asking the room about who shops? that was okay. so we had about twenty. we had about twenty percent penetration, but about eight percent of that, about half of that was, was wish over here. so that actually is a great segue into a post you wrote a couple of days ago which I wanted to bring up, which was: it was on your private Facebook, with any posted on medium, and the general idea was: Silicon Valley is still stunned by the election of Donald Trump. I could say Donald Trump is the president-elect and- and you said that you know this is in in the on the coast. we live in this different world from the rest of the country and that sort of blindness was sort of part of the reason that at its start people didn't understand which, investors didn't understand which, and maybe still today- I know from reporting lies- it's still one of the most polarizing companies I cover in terms of whether the growth is real. who are these customers? so then I got that and did I get that summary right? I don't want to. you want to explain what you were trying to get at? yeah, if my mic goes out, let me know. oh, boy, your mic. I think there's four critikisms of wish. for most common critikism or wish, I think two are common misconceptions I can surely mention is. it's probably the first one, and two are probably valid critikisms. the first one, first one, being who buys this stuff? sort of this common dialogue that we had in 2013-2014, 2012, which is okay. your metrics look great, they're headed in the right direction, but I wouldn't shop on wish. I don't know anyone that shops on wish. I can't believe that there are people that would shop on wish. and because the items are super cheap, right, well, because if you really think about people in Silicon Valley and probably in this room and maybe New York, LA, well, the people that are doing well, you know people that are doing well. I just want people that didn't want to change, people that probably didn't, didn't didn't vote for Trump, for instance. their priorities in terms of e-commerce are the following, and you can disagree or agree with me, but I think it's purchase experience, meaning that the most important from things for me is: I want to get it fast, I wanted to get it reliably, I wanted the Edit in a 3d package, then I want really good product quality. as far as my second priority, and then price, is, I don't get ripped off but I'm not really looking for the best price and if you really look at the statistiks around amazoncom, they're often, you know, within five to ten percent of the best price, but they're not often the best price. and if you look at our consumers, that equation is: it's basically flipped around and it's price is the most important because if I can't afford it, I can't have it. second is the product quality: like: it has to work, it has to fulfill its utility needs and then and then lastly, it's it's it's the purchase experience. so our consumers are much more willing to wait two or three weeks- as horrendous as that sounds in this room- in order to say: you know, three dollars to euros or whatever it is, and that that was sort of the most common misconception of wish. it's typically the investor class in Silicon Valley said: I don't use it, I don't know when you want who would show up on a wish. I don't think anyone would shop on a wish. I think this is as far as you guys go, and during the election this year, we basically heard the same thing. you know, I fell into this category as well. I don't support Trump. I don't know when you want that would support Trump. therefore, no one supports Trump. founders- founders- phone isn't about right, right, so how much fun is an investment? peter thiel, you know I mean great foresight there, so hopefully you know we. he has the year of the president-elect, so we'll see how that turns out. but my point is that a joke is that you know we'll see. right, it's a but it's just. my point is like this is a sloppy conjecture, like there are 62 million- over 62 million- Americans that voted for this guy. right, they exist and we didn't see that at all and we overlooked it. and, in the same way, investors, I think, kept on overlooking wish and in 2012 and 2013 and 2014 and some some of you probably still overlooked it now, but it exists. so in terms of hard facts, look, the median annual household income in this country is about $50,000, meaning 50% of households here in less than $50,000 a year, but these households exist. 80% of households in the United States earn less than $100,000 a year. right, did this exist? in Europe, the annual household incomes are actually much lower, and so these are customers that were typically before, which do a lot of their shopping where Walmart, Walmart, local shopping malls, etc. right so? so there's the analogy of why we missed it, how we, how we missed it, and this is what I call the invisible half. there's basically 50% or so of Americans. if you can argue about the popular vote, let's call it 47%. that that we basically ignore, but they do exist. you know, when we launched which, we didn't think that we were going to go after value conscious consumers and their target them would unbranded goods, but the data was indisputable. so, yes, sorry, we started with some brand. did you start with? what was the initial idea? the initial idea is ad targeting- really back in the day. that's really really back in a day, but that it's really hard to scale. it's a really large business there because we don't own the advertiser and we don't own the publisher side, so that that we knew we weren't going to create a big business. what we knew is Internet traffic. you know, this was 2011. 2012 was quickly moving to smartphones and e-commerce was not yet, and it would look a lot different. shopping on smartphones would look different than it did on on desktops. it would be less search oriented. it would be much more entertainment driven- consumers thriving some kind of entertainment value from it. shorter sessions, you know. smaller screens, much more visual and they're, you know we largely got right. so, focusing on personalization, taking the Google methodology of getting more and more data and developing algorithms and intuition around those algorithms to continue driving up the conversion rate. and we basically, for the first three years, we've doubled conversion rate and you know, like this, here it's up like 65 percent or so year-over-year. it's a function of better. also, that's the percentage of people who open the app and go on to buy something exactly. so there, I think, on smart phones, we're competitive or maybe even beating out the companies like Amazon, Intel, Bach. so let's step back to a second further: car seems like you have quite a three years in, still a chip on your shoulder about people, not, but we not believing no, so there's pros and cons about this, right, so so that it was really difficult to raise funding. luckily, with our model, we don't take any inventory, so you necessarily need to take how much funding. at the same time, there's basically still, I think, no competition in the United States and Europe, which are our biggest markets, for which, right like III, don't see any other startups that scale competing against us. start keyword their startup. so a lot of the items you can find on which, if you dig deep, deep enough, into eBay's marketplace, amazon's marketplace, if you're Aliexpress, which is Ali Baba's Sur app for out for consumers outside of China, you can see a lot of the same product. right, you might be able to surface those up, I'd say, because it's not a priority. they are often more challenging to find. I'd say that Aliexpress, the vast majority of their sales and consumers come from Russia and Brazil, which are countries that we're not really very active in right now. Connie, okay, so I sorry, so I cut you off. I started q.

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Black Friday, Verified Reviews, Amazon Prime Membership, and Counterfeit Products, Nov 27 2016

hi, it's cari from bobsled marketing and we have a huge Amazon week in review today because we've just had black friday and Thanksgiving here in the US and tomorrow is Cyber Monday. so, of course, our biggest story today is about like Friday and what happened. so, for the first time ever, sales on mobile devices, Eclipse desktop sales. on Black Friday, it was the first day that mobile sales have surpassed 1 billion dollars in a day, and this encapsulates a bigger trend for all brands to be thinking about, which is mobile commerce and the fact that consumers are browsing, forming their wish list, adding things to their shopping cart on their mobile and sometimes transacting on the desktop later on, but they're using mobile especially as a discovery device. purchases made on tablets are actually far less than on mobile device, on cell phones and other mobile devices, so it's something to really keep top of mind whether you're selling on Amazon, which has its own limitations in terms of how long the product description, the product title, will be. it truncates at 25 characters and only the first three of five bullet points are shown by default on mobile devices. so this enormous optik that we've seen year-over-year with mobile devices is here to stay, and it was pretty clear on thanksgiving day, when we saw a lot of sales actually happening on mobile devices compared with desktop 2, and this trend isn't just limited to the us. we saw similar outcomes in the UK as well. so we know about mobile commerce on Black Friday, but what about total sales? Adobe estimates that three point three, four billion dollars in revenue is generated on black friday this year. and how was that compared to brick-and-mortar retail? well, last year, 2015, was actually the first year that there was just as many p all shopping online as there were going into brick-and-mortar retail stores. we're continuing to see that effect grow every year as more and more people decide they're not going to battle the lines at Macy's or sports authority. they're just going to go online instead. that was certainly the case for me. the second big update this week is that amazon prime membership is up to forty nine point five million members. in the US. prime membership is being growing at a rapid clip and it means that, in total, roughly forty five percent of us households now have prime membership. cowan also found that Prime members account for fifty-seven percent of total purchases in October this year, versus forty-nine percent from a year ago. Prime members shop on amazon more often, spend more each year in total and spend across a wider variety of categories than non Prime members. amazon, of course, is well aware of this effects and they have invested a ton of capital over the years into growing the prime program and adding different perks to it. so in the US we have free one-day shipping on many items, one-hour delivery and prime now locations, and they've been investing a lot into that Netflix competitor to add more content for users and get even more Prime members. as they keep adding more perks into the membership, consumers get sucked into the vortex of amazon prime, thereby becoming more and more valuable customers. it's a business plan that Wall Street ridiculed Jeff Bezos for when it was first introduced, but now it's one of the most groundbreaking innovations in the retail world, with his own copy cats, including Walmart com. [Music]. does amazon have a secret new plan to fort counterfeit products? knockoffs have become a big problem on amazon recently and one that many sellers have had an issue getting amazon to take seriously. but recently amazon stepped up their game. first, they failed to lawsuits in the US against sellers of counterfeit products and now, according to cnet, amazon is working on a secret pilot program called brand central, which is described as helping smaller sellers to protect their trade marks and other intellectual property. more details to come when or if Amazon ever launches this program to the public, but if you're interested to find out how we help our clients at bobsled marketing to take care of counterfeit sellers, leave a comment in the comment box below and I'll out why not to you in another video. and finally, Amazon puts a limit on how many unverified product reviews customers can write, so this further extends actions that amazon has taken to clean up their product review ecosystem, which many customers were getting frustrated by the number and percentage of incentivized reviews on many product listings. consumers hate it. it's degrading the integrity of the Amazon platform, and now they're putting further limits in place around how many reviews can be written without a purchase confirmation coming through from Amazon. so now people can only write five reviews of products that they haven't bought through Amazon in the space of a week. so that's the week in review on Amazon. I hope you enjoyed this video. make sure you subscribe to the channel so that you can get next week's Week in Review as soon as it comes out. [Music].